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09/08/2010 -
JoePa visits the Bear's house. The 'Canes blow into the Horseshoe for a rematch of the 2002 national championship game. Florida State's first big game post-Bowden takes place in Norman, Okla., a rematch of the 2000 national title game.
The second week of the college football season is so jammed pack with intriguing games that Brian Kelly's first foray into the Notre Dame-Michigan rivalry can't even crack the top three.
Hey, neither the Fighting Irish nor the Wolverines is ranked.
Joe Paterno, who broke Bear Bryant's record on the way to becoming the winningest coach in the history of major college football, brings Penn State to Tuscaloosa to face No. 1 Alabama.
The Nittany Lions and Crimson Tide routinely squared off in the 1970s and early '80s, when Bear Bryant was stalking Alabama's sideline. The Bear is gone now, but the Tide's stadium is named after him. Meanwhile, the 83-year-old Paterno has 395 victories.
Even if Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram (knee) can't play Saturday, beating Nick Saban's defending national champions would rank as one of Paterno's most surprising victories.
The last time Ohio State played Miami, it was the Buckeyes pulling off the upset.
Ohio State's 31-24 double-overtime victory in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl kept the Hurricanes from repeating as national champions and made the Buckeyes champs for the first time in more than three decades. It was also the night official Terry Porter became famous for throwing a flag for pass interference on Miami that is debated to this day.
``It's like everyone is making sure that we remember what happened,'' said current Miami quarterback Jacory Harris, who are the underdogs this time to the second-ranked Buckeyes.
Since Bob Stoops took over at Oklahoma in 1999, the Sooners have been perennial contenders. But they haven't won a national championship since Stoops' second season, when the Sooners beat Bobby Bowden's Seminoles 13-2 in the 2001 Orange Bowl.
That turned out to be Bowden's last shot at a national title. Florida State had some good teams after that, but Bowden's long run of excellence ended that night in Miami.
Stoops is still cranking out wins in Norman, but Bowden's time at Florida State is over. It's now Jimbo Fisher's job to return the 17th-ranked Seminoles to elite status and beating No. 10 Oklahoma would be a giant step in the right direction.
The picks:
Thursday
No. 21 Auburn (minus 2) at Mississippi State.
Matchup of spread offenses and promising QBs ... MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-24.
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Friday
No. 23 West Virginia (minus 13) at Marshall.
Mountaineers 9-0 in Friends of the Coal Bowl ... WEST VIRGINIA 31-14.
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Saturday
No. 18 Penn State (plus 11 1/2) at No. 1 Alabama.
Saban on one side, frosh QB playing first road game on the other ... ALABAMA 24-10.
No. 12 Miami (plus 9 1/2) at No. 2 Ohio State.
Can Jacory Harris avoid the big mistake? ... OHIO STATE 20-14.
Tennessee Tech (no line) at No. 4 TCU.
Tennessee Tech goes from Razorbacks to Horned Frogs ... TCU 50-10.
Wyoming (plus 29) at No. 5 Texas.
These Cowboys won't fare well in Texas ... TEXAS 45-14.
Idaho (plus 28 1/2) at No. 6 Nebraska.
Huskers redshirt freshman QB Taylor Martinez ran for 127 yards in debut ... NEBRASKA 42-10.
No. 7 Oregon (minus 13) at Tennessee.
After 72-point opener, Ducks get back star TB LaMichael James ... OREGON 35-20.
South Florida (plus 15 1/2) at No. 8 Florida.
Gators problems should be a snap to fix ... FLORIDA 28-10.
Iowa State (plus 13 1/2) at No. 9 Iowa.
Cyclones haven't scored TD vs. Hawkeyes in last 14 quarters ... IOWA 21-10.
No. 17 Florida State (plus 8 1/2) at No. 10 Oklahoma.
Sooners need to fix secondary quick with Christian Ponder coming to town ... OKLAHOMA 37-21.
San Jose State (plus 38) at No. 11 Wisconsin.
Badgers have won 14 straight home openers ... WISCONSIN 45-14.
James Madison (no line) at No. 13 Virginia Tech.
Hokies dealing with annual early season disappointment ... VIRGINIA TECH 35-17.
Louisiana-Monroe (plus 34) vs. No. 14 Arkansas at Little Rock, Ark.
It's officially a ULM home game ... ARKANSAS 48-21.
No. 15 Georgia Tech (minus 13 1/2) at Kansas.
It doesn't get any easier for Turner Gill at KU ... GEORGIA TECH 31-21.
Virginia (plus 19 1/2) at No. 16 Southern California.
Trojans are 12-6 against ACC teams ... USC 38-17.
No. 19 LSU (minus 10) at Vanderbilt.
Tigers have won six straight vs. Commodores ... LSU 28-14.
UNLV (plus 23 1/2) at No. 20 Utah.
Utes home winning streak is at 18 ... UTAH 45-16.
No. 22 Georgia (plus 2 1/2) at No. 24 South Carolina.
Bulldogs have won seven of last eight and four in a row at USC ... GEORGIA 24-21.
No. 25 Stanford (minus 6 1/2) at UCLA.
Bruins offense is a mess ... STANFORD 30-17.
Michigan (plus 3 1/2) at Notre Dame.
Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez needs it more than Kelly ... MICHIGAN 27-21.
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Last week: 21-1 (straight); 9-5-1 (vs. points).Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Marlins to skip Johnson's next start >>
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A's hope to build a win streak versus Mariners >>
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Familiar foes do battle in Winnipeg >>
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards
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